Happy Sunday, Grinders! I hope you are all enjoying the holiday weekend. Let’s try to make some money with our usual large Sunday MLB DFS slate!

We have ten games on the main slate today, and it’s going to be a challenging one. It’s time to get straight to work!

Most teams are wrapping up their second trip through the rotation this afternoon, so the pitching options are genuinely poor. That’s going to make this a tricky slate to attack, as this would generally be a slate where we’d want to secure the safety of the good pitchers that we do have. However, we need to remember that it’s still best to “spread out” your pitching exposure in GPP builds with starters rarely going deep into games in their second starts. We did see the Astros extend Justin Verlander to eight innings last night in a sparkling performance, but he still didn’t top 90 pitches — he was just extremely efficient when he was out there.

I say all this to note that this slate is going to be extremely unpredictable from a pitching perspective. I’m not going to get super analytical and dig into a ton of numbers from one or two starts with a lot of these pitchers. It’s simply a mess. Be cautious and spread out your exposure if you are building multiple GPP lineups. Play the game theory approach and fade the chalk if you’re into that risk/reward strategy. Play it safe with the best base projections in cash game builds. There’s not going to be a lot that separates many of the top arms today, but there are going to be some land mines that put up a negative score. I’m expecting an “offense heavy” slate this afternoon.

In any case, here’s what we have that you could consider as top pitching options (relatively speaking):

Zack Wheeler vs. Marlins Alek Manoah vs. A’s Alex Wood vs. Guardians

That’s it. That’s your top tier. Get excited! There are no Easter eggs with hidden gems and added aces today. Sorry! Don’t hurt the messenger.

As for the top three, it’s remarkable how similar the matchups are. All three face offenses that were consensus bottom five units in the MLB heading into the season. However, all three have overachieved in the early going. The Guardians somehow lead the league in team wOBA at the moment, while the Marlins (16th) and A’s (17th) are in the middle of the pack. The Guardians are also the lowest strikeout team of the group, and they face a generally low upside pitcher in Alex Wood. These factors make Wood a clear third on my list this afternoon.

That means it comes down to Wheeler and Manoah for the top spot. Despite their modest success in the early going, the A’s do have the fourth highest team strikeout rate in the league. The Jays could also use some innings out of Manoah today after Hyun Jin Ryu didn’t last long in yesterday’s outing. In addition, they did let Manoah get up to 89 pitches in his season debut, which is one of the highest pitch counts we saw out of a first turn through any team’s rotation. Manoah is a very talented young pitcher and a future ace. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler got to just 65 pitches in his first start, and the Phillies are likely to be more cautious with him.

Given the matchups and circumstances, this tier ranks as a very clear one for me. It’s Manoah at the top, then Wheeler, then Wood.

UPDATE – DET /KC HAS BEEN POSTPONED . REMOVE ALL PLAYERS FROM THAT GAME .

Good luck finding something else that you like today. Seriously. I can’t envision going past Manoah and Wheeler on FanDuel in any single lineup or cash game build, but we have to spread things out in GPP formats. We also need a second starter on both DraftKings and Yahoo. Reluctantly, we have to find something else.

Dakota Hudson vs. Brewers? Hudson is talented and is one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball. It’s also becoming evident that Milwaukee’s lineup is a genuine concern. They were shut down by Miles Mikolas on Friday and Steven Matz last night. The problem with Hudson is that he struggled with command in his first start, he doesn’t possess a lot of strikeout upside, and he’s a bit overpriced ($8,600 DK, $8,800 FD, $32 Yahoo). He’s a reasonable option with some safety given his skill set, but the point per dollar ceiling is moderate at best.

Nestor Cortes vs. Orioles? Cortes is also talented, but he has never put it together as a starter at the MLB level. The ceiling is probably five innings, as he was pulled after 4 1/3 innings in his first start despite owning a shutout and no walks at the time. The matchup is a good one against a weak Baltimore offense. He’s another relatively safe option.

Aaron Civale vs. Giants? Civale did not look sharp in his first start, and he has to face a generally underrated and pesky Giants team today. He’s not necessary in cash game builds, and he merely has fringe GPP appeal given his career 20.5% strikeout rate. A limited ceiling and a tough matchup makes him difficult to endorse.

Patrick Corbin vs. Pirates or Jose Quintana vs. Nationals? Here we have two bad pitchers facing two bad offenses. I’ve been beating the #FadeCorbin drum for a year and a half now, but for some reason he continues to get ownership against weak offenses. It generally doesn’t matter, because Corbin is just flat out terrible now. Look at his numbers over the last two seasons, and your stomach will turn at the thought of rostering him. I’m not going to argue against either Quintana or Corbin as multi-entry GPP options today, but it’s definitely buyer beware here.

Carlos Hernandez vs. Tigers or Tyler Alexander vs. Royals? See above. Two bad pitchers. Two bad offenses. They’re merely dice roll GPP options at best.

Bailey Ober vs. Red Sox? I like the talent here and think Ober has a bright future at the MLB level. This is another spot where a team could use some innings, as Sonny Gray didn’t make it out of the second inning yesterday. Ober has a 25% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate in his MLB sample with a 3.87 SIERA . There’s potential here if he can navigate a tough Boston lineup, but he’s a bit overpriced on DK at $9,000. I really like him as a tournament play.

David Peterson vs. Diamondbacks? Why not? He doesn’t break the bank, and the Arizona lineup is feeble. Peterson didn’t open the year as a starter, but he got up close to 60 pitches in relief of Taijuan Walker in his last outing. He should be able to hit the 75-80 pitch range today, which really isn’t that much lower than any of the other pitchers. His biggest historical issue has been with walks, but he projects fairly well against a bad lineup. He’s worth a look as an affordable SP2.

In summary, this secondary tier is a disaster. Hudson, Cortes, and Peterson are my favorite “safe” options, while Ober is my preferred GPP upside play. I’m not going to be able to miraculously pull a great option out of this group, though.

Angels vs. Martin Perez (not on DK slate) Yankees vs. Bruce Zimmermann Blue Jays vs. Adam Oller Mets vs. Humberto Castellanos White Sox vs. JP Feyereisen / Tommy Romero

The main slate on DK and FD does not include the Dodgers or Coors Field today, so this slate does look a little different compared to the last few days. The LAA /TEX game is also not available on DK, so we don’t have the Angels over there. As for said Angels, I do like them as a top offense today against a low strikeout lefty in Martin Perez. The top four hitters in this lineup are built to attack pitchers like Perez. Ohtani and Trout are raking right now, and Rendon has very strong career splits against lefties. As usual, the LAA batting order really thins out beyond the top few hitters, so that’s about where interest ends here.

What do we do with the Yankees? They have been a relative bust in each of the first two games against a woeful Baltimore pitching staff, scoring just six total runs in two games. That ownership is going to keep dwindling lower due to recency bias, but how long do we continue to chase it? Process over results would tell you this makes for a good time to stack up the power bats. Bruce Zimmermann hasn’t been a gas can in his limited MLB sample, but he has some command issues and has allowed a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed bats. OK Judge, Stanton, et al. It’s time for a breakout game.

The Blue Jays will likely be one of the most popular units to target once again today. This offense has the potential to put up huge numbers in any game, even with the loss of Teoscar Hernandez. Vladimir Guerrero appears poised for a ridiculous season, while Matt Chapman and Zack Collins both homered on Saturday. Adam Oller was shelled in his MLB debut, and he isn’t going to keep a starting gig once James Kaprielian returns. Toronto’s lineup is my favorite overall one to target on this slate. George Springer should be ready to go after a rest day yesterday, and this lineup is going to be in play from top to bottom.

This tier winds down with the Mets and White Sox. Both teams have similarly potent offenses, though I prefer the Blue Jays from a total points per dollar perspective. The Mets and White Sox don’t come cheap, so give me Toronto for the top spends. However, there’s definite stacking potential here, and both the Mets and White Sox will likely generally be lower owned. Humberto Castellanos has allowed a .350+ wOBA to both LHB s and RHB s in his limited MLB sample, so simply lean on the NYM hitters that are best against RHP . Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo all have .470+ wOBA marks against RHP in the early going, but Nimmo is on the COVID list at the moment. Of course, the likes of Alonso and Marte can always bring power potential. The White Sox are tougher to peg against the wonky Tampa Bay “opener/follower” pitching approach, but you can certainly advocate for the full stack there.

(For those that are new to this article, you can see a summary of individual names that I like at the end of the article).

Twins vs. Michael Wacha Red Sox vs. Bailey Ober Phillies vs. Elieser Hernandez Cardinals vs. Aaron Ashby Rays vs. Vince Velasquez

Even though I have these teams listed in a second tier, I still like them quite a bit today. We’ll start with the Twins, who project as fantastic values on a points per dollar basis. The lineup generally lacks thump without Buxton in there, but Michael Wacha just isn’t good. Wacha has also had a reverse splits lean throughout his career, so I don’t mind targeting RH power against him. Carlos Correa would be the top target, with Gary Sanchez and Miguel Sano being interesting risk/reward power options that are extreme values. Luis Arraez is also a viable option if he continues to lead off in Buxton’s (presumed) absence. Of course, Buxton is a great option if he happens to be back in there today. I will have some full stacks as well. I won’t have as much exposure to the Boston side of this game given my fondness for Bailey Ober, but they do have an implied run total of around 4.8 runs, so they are certainly in play if you aren’t as high on Ober as I am.

Elieser Hernandez is not a gas can, but the Phillies are a dangerous lineup against any pitcher. They exploded for eight runs in the first two innings last night, and you can never ignore a combination that includes Castellanos, Harper, Schwarber, Hoskins, and Realmuto as part of a top five. I prefer the other top offenses today given the matchups, but the Phillies are squarely in play.

I try not to be much of a homer when it comes to DFS . I don’t play the Cardinals all that often, but this is an offense that is built to thrive against lefties. O’Neill, Arenado, and Goldschmidt are all fantastic power bats that hit from the right side, and even Albert Pujols still has some life in his bat against lefties. Aaron Ashby is a decent pitcher, but I wouldn’t argue against any of the STL power in the middle of the order today.

Vince Velasquez remains an enigma. He can look dominant at times, and he can give up six runs in two innings at other times. That puts the Rays in the “risk/reward stack” category today. Are they priority targets? Certainly not, though Randy Arozarena is very cheap at $2,800 on FanDuel. He’s my only priority target, and from there it will just be stacking up the hitters in strong lineup spots.

Royals vs. Tyler Alexander Tigers vs. Carlos Hernandez Pirates vs. Patrick Corbin Nationals vs. Jose Quintana

These are the four teams that I described under the pitching section as “bad offenses against bad pitchers.” These matchups tend to be unpredictable, though none of the first three games of the DET /KC series has featured more than six total runs. I am going to tread carefully with these games, but you can certainly roll some stacks if you want some lower owned potential. These are also relatively low-cost offenses, so you can easily stack up teams like the Tigers, Royals, or Pirates while also fitting in Wheeler or Manoah as your SP1.

The other way to attack this outside of stacks is with value bats. I’ll continue to target ROY candidate Bobby Witt as long he remains value priced on all sites. He took some good at-bats yesterday and had his first multi-hit game as a Royal, and it’s only a matter of time before the extra base hit upside starts to show.

Jonathan Schoop and Spencer Torkelson are a couple of value options on the Detroit side against Carlos Hernandez. It’s tougher to trust the value on the Nationals and Pirates, but again, there’s low cost potential against bad pitchers. Nelson Cruz would be my favorite power upside target from that game given his lengthy history of career success against left-handed pitching.

As usual, we have the late games on the Yahoo slate, so here are a few notes if you are playing there or if you are playing the later slates on DK/FD.

1) The Coors Field game is on this slate, so of course we can find some offense there. Both the Cubs and Rockies are throwing traditional splits lefties today in Smyly and Gomber. Load up the RH power on both sides. Kris Bryant was removed from last night’s game, so he might not play today. Monitor the lineup news. C.J. Cron smacked two homers last night and is always an upside bat against LHP , while the emerging Connor Joe can thrive in the leadoff spot in this park. Contreras and Schwindel are my favorite power targets on the Chicago side.

2) On a thin pitching slate, the viable pitchers in the late games have appeal. Yu Darvish got shelled as chalk in his last start against the Giants, and ownership might be sneaky low today in a matchup against the Braves. He still has SP1 upside, particularly on this slate.

3) Andrew Heaney is also an intriguing pitching target. He looked solid in his first start of the year and gets to face an absolutely feeble Cincinnati lineup. The Dave Roberts factor looms, as we have already seen Kershaw pulled in the midst of a perfect game and Urias pulled after five spectacular innings last night. However, Heaney makes for a great mid-range target.

4) As usual, the LAD offense is squarely in play, even against a decent pitcher in Tyler Mahle. Mahle has allowed a .333 wOBA with a 35% hard contact rate allowed to LHB s in his career, so prioritize the hitters from that side. Freeman and Muncy are my top targets, with the full stack also being viable.

5) The Padres are my favorite “sneaky stack” in the night game against Bryce Elder. Be careful with the Astros against a potentially emerging pitcher in Matt Brash.

4) Dakota Hudson 5) Nestor Cortes 6) David Peterson 7) Bailey Ober (I will be higher in GPP s)

1) TOR 2) NYY 3) MIN 4) NYM 5) LAA (FD/Yahoo only) 6) CHW 7) PHI

Top Spend Up Bats – Bryce Harper, Francisco Lindor, Vladimir Guerrero, George Springer, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout (FD/Yahoo only)

Top Mid-Range Bats – Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Lourdes Gurriel, Nelson Cruz, Matt Chapman, Anthony Rendon (FD/Yahoo only)

Top Value Bats – Bobby Witt, Luis Arraez, Gary Sanchez, Hunter Dozier

Justin Van Zuiden, aka stlcardinals84, is a popular RotoGrinders contributor and GrindersLive host who routinely finishes in the top 10 of the TPOY race. He’s appeared in numerous live finals and has logged countless six-figure wins in a host of different sports, including five in PGA . Justin is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at ScoresAndOdds

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